The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Continues to Fall in March

On Monday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its US Leading Economic Indicators for March.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.7% to 100.5 in March (2016=100), after a revised decline of 0.2% (originally 0.3%) in February. Overall, the LEI fell 1.2% in the six-month period ending in March, a slower rate of decline that its 2.3% contraction over the previous six months (March–September 2024).
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.1% to 114.4 in March, after a 0.3% increase in February. The CEI rose 0.8% over the six-month period between September 2024 and March, up slightly from its 0.7% growth over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Industrial production, which has declined for the first time since November 2024, was the only negative contributor in March.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) decreased 0.1% to 119.1 in March, after a 0.3% increase in February. Despite the monthly downtick, the LAG’s six-month growth rate remained positive at 0.7% between September 2024 and March—a reversal of its negative 0.7% decline over the previous six months.

In a statement accompanying the report, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, said:

“The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead. March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: (1) consumer expectations dropped further, (2) stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since September 2022, and (3) new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start. Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy’s potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.”