The Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index Retreats for Second Consecutive Month in September

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, on Tuesday (9-26-23) released its Consumer Confidence Survey® for September.

• The Consumer Confidence Index® declined to a reading of 103.0 (1985=100), down from a revised August reading of 108.7.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased modestly to a reading of 147.1, up from August’s reading of 146.7.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to a reading of 73.7, after falling to 83.3 in August. The Conference Board notes that The Expectation Index fell back below 80, the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow contraction anticipated for the first half of 2024.

Adding additional background and her analysis to the report, The Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said:

“Consumer confidence fell again in September 2023, marking two consecutive months of decline. September’s disappointing headline number reflects another decline in the Expectations Index, as the Present Situation Index was little changed.

Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concern about the political situation and higher interest rates. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.”