The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Trends Lower in September

On Monday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its US Leading Indicators for September.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.5% in September to a reading of 99.7 (2016=100), following a 0.3% decline in August. Over the six-month period between March and September, the LEI fell by 2.6%, more than its 2.2% decline over the previous six-month period (September 2023 to March 2024).
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.1% in September to a reading of 112.9 (2016=100), after a downwardly revised 0.2% increase in August. The CEI increased by 0.9% in the six-month period ending in September, higher than its 0.5% growth rate over the previous six-month period. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales contributed positively to the index in September and slightly more than offset a decline in industrial production.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) declined by 0.3% to a reading of 118.9 (2016=100) in September, after no change in August. The LAG’s six-month growth rate turned negative, showing a 0.2% contraction over the six-month period ending in September, after a 1.1% increase over the previous six-month period.

Adding background and analysis to the report, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, said:

“Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists. Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above. Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025.“