FEA: Clarification on Timing of New US Duties on Canadian Softwood Lumber

In response to some confusion regarding the timing of the US Department of Commerce’s (DOC) final determinations for the new Canadian softwood lumber duties, and the resulting increase in deposit rates, FEA’s Paul Jannke (Principal, Lumber) has offered a few clarifications.

In short, Canadian lumber duties (currently 14.4%) are likely to jump to ~34.5%. A final decision is expected in early to mid-August, but duty hikes could occur as early as July 3.

While softwood lumber avoided new tariffs, US imports from Canada are still subject to 14.4% duties. Moreover, the DOC issued preliminary findings suggesting a combined duty increase of about 20% to 34.5%. It is important to note that this is a preliminary determination; the final rates will differ, but if history is a guide, it won’t be by much.

The DOC published its preliminary antidumping duty (ADD) determination on March 5, followed by the countervailing duty (CVD) determination on April 9. By law, the final determinations are due within 120 days of these publications, unless the DOC extends their review by 60 days. That puts the initial deadlines for the final ADD on July 3 and the final CVD on August 7. However, the DOC has always utilized the extension in the past, potentially pushing the deadlines to September 1 and October 6, respectively.

We believe the most probable scenario involves the DOC aligning the timelines for both cases and opting for the extension. This would likely place the release of the final duty determinations in the early to mid-August timeframe. However, it is important to note that duty deposits could increase as early as July 3.