The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is projecting that commercial and multifamily loans, which are backed by income producing property, will be close to $ 395 billion in 2020. If that projection holds true, it will represent a -34% decline from 2019’s record volume of $601 billion. Total multifamily lending, which includes some loans made by small and midsize banks not captured in the overall total, is forecast to fall -21% to $288 billion in 2020 from last year’s record total of $364 billion. MBA anticipates a slight increase in lending volumes in 2021, with activity rising to $407 billion in commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers originations and $305 billion in total multifamily lending. In prepared remarks, MBA’s Vice President for Commercial Real Estate Research said, “There remains a great deal of uncertainty about the pandemic and its impacts on the economy and commercial real estate, with significant differences across property types and capital sources. The downturn is putting downward pressure on some property incomes, particularly property types most impacted by the pandemic or with shorter lease terms.”
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MBA Forecast: Commercial/Multifamily Lending to Fall 34 Percent in 2020