US Real GDP Increases at an Annual Rate of 1.4% in Q4, BEA Reports in Its “Advance” Estimate
GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025
On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “advance” estimate for 2025Q4 real gross domestic product (GDP), reporting that GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.4%. In Q3, real GDP increased 4.4%.
The report was rescheduled from January 29 due to the October–November 2025 government shutdown.
The change in Q4 GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and investment, partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment—rose 2.4% in Q4, compared with 2.9% in Q3.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.7% in Q4, compared with 3.4% in Q3. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.9%, compared with 2.8% in the prior quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.7%, following a 2.9% gain in Q3.
The “second” estimate for Q4 GDP will be released on March 13.
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