The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Declines in December

On Thursday, The Conference Board released its US Leading Indicators for December 2025.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.2% in December to 97.6 (2016=100), following a 0.3% drop in November and a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in October. The index fell 1.2% between July and December, compared with a 2.8% contraction over the prior six-month period.
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.2% to 115.0 in December, after a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in November. Over the latest six-month period, the CEI rose 0.3%, compared to 0.4% in the previous six months. Its four components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Nearly all components improved, although personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales were estimated.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) fell 0.1% to 119.6 in December. Over the past six months, the LAG was unchanged, compared with a 1.2% increase over the previous period.

In remarks accompanying the report, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, said:

“The US LEI registered its fifth consecutive monthly decline in December, indicating continued softness in the economy in early 2026. Alongside a rise in building permits, positive contributions to the LEI in December were led by the index’s financial components, with the yield spread notably turning positive in both November and December.

However, persistently weak consumer expectations indicators and the ISM New Orders Index made the largest negative contributions to the LEI in December. Labor market data also weighed on the Index, with an increase in unemployment claims and a decline in average weekly hours in manufacturing. Overall, the LEI signals weaker economic activity at the start of this year. The Conference Board projects a slowdown in growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026, with GDP set to expand by 2.1% year-over-year in 2026, from a forecasted 2.2% in 2025.”