US Leading Economic Index® Declined in October, The Conference Board Reports

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (11-18-22) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US in October 2022. According to the report, the LEI declined 0.8% in October to a reading of 114.9 (2016=100), following a 0.5% drop in September and remaining unchanged in August. The LEI has dropped 3.2% over the six-month period from April to October 2022, a reversal from its 0.5% growth over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased by 0.2% in October to a reading of 109.3 (2016=100) following a 0.2% increase in September and a 0.1% increase in August. The CEI has increased by 1.1% over the six-month period from April to October 2022, faster than its growth of 0.9% over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased by 0.1% in October to a reading of 116.3 (2016=100) following a 0.8% increase in September and a 0.7% in increase in August. The LAG has increased by 3.7% over the six-month period from April to October 2022, faster than the 3.1% growth it experienced during the previous six-month period.

Adding additional background information and his analysis, Senior Director of Economic Research at the Conference Board Ataman Ozyildirim said:

“The US LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy is possibly in a recession. The downturn in the LEI reflects consumers’ worsening outlook amid high inflation and rising interest rates, as well as declining prospects for housing construction and manufacturing. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.8 percent year-over-year in 2022, and a recession is likely to start around yearend and last through mid-2023.”