US Consumer Confidence Index Rebounds in October

On Tuesday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its Consumer Confidence Survey® for October.

• The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) increased to a reading of 108.7 in October (1985=100), up from an upwardly revised reading of 99.2 in September.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to a reading of 138.0 in October, up 14.2 points from September’s reading of 123.8.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—increased 6.3 points to a reading of 89.1 in October, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

The cutoff date for the preliminary results was October 23rd.

In remarks accompanying the report, The Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said:

“Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job availability.

October’s increase in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. In terms of age, confidence rose sharpest for consumers aged 35 to 54. On a six-month moving average basis, householders aged under 35 and those earning over $100K remained the most confident.

The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months dropped to its lowest level since the question was first asked in July 2022, as did the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession. Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Current Financial Situation were unchanged, but optimism for the next six months reached a series high. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®).”