US Consumer Confidence Index Increases in July

On Tuesday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its Consumer Confidence Survey® (CCI) for July.

• The Consumer Confidence Index® increased to a reading of 100.3 in July, up from 97.8 in June (1985=100).
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined to a reading of 133.6 in July, down from 135.3 in June.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to a reading of 78.2 in July, up from 72.8 in June. The Conference Board notes that the Expectations Index has been below 80—the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead—for five consecutive months.

The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 22nd.

In remarks and analysis accompanying the report, Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said:

“Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year.

Compared to last month, consumers were somewhat less pessimistic about the future. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead. Meanwhile, consumers were a bit less positive about current labor and business conditions. Potentially, smaller monthly job additions are weighing on consumers’ assessment of current job availability: while still quite strong, consumers’ assessment of the current labor market situation declined to its lowest level since March 2021.”

In July, confidence improved among consumers under 35 and those 55 and older; only the 35–54 age group saw a decline. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence remained the highest among consumers under 35. On a month-over-month basis, no clear pattern emerged in terms of income groups. On a six-month moving average basis, consumers making over $100K were the most confident, but the gap with other groups narrowed.”