US Consumer Confidence Index Declines in June

On Tuesday, the Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its Consumer Confidence Survey® for June.

• The Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) declined to a reading of 100.4 (1985=100) in June, down from 101.3 in May.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to a reading of 141.5 (1985=100) in June, up from 140.8 in May.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to a reading of 73.0 (1985=100) in June, down from 74.9 in May. The Conference Board notes that the Expectations Index has been below 80—the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead—for five consecutive months.

Adding background and analysis to the results, Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said:

“Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future. However, if material weaknesses in the labor market appear, Confidence could weaken as the year progresses.

Consumers expressed mixed feelings this month: Their view of the present situation improved slightly overall, driven by an uptick in sentiment about the current labor market, but their assessment of current business conditions cooled. Meanwhile, for the second month in a row, consumers were a bit less pessimistic about future labor market conditions. However, their expectations for both future income and business conditions weakened, weighing down the overall Expectations Index.

The decline in confidence between May and June was centered on consumers aged 35–54. By contrast, those under 35 and those 55 and older saw confidence improve this month. No clear pattern emerged in terms of income groups. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100k) consumers.”