The University of Michigan today (11-23-22) released its final results of its Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for November. The Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to a reading of 56.8 in November, down from its reading of 59.9 in October. This is a month-over-month decrease of 5.2% and down 15.7% year-over-year (67.4 in November 2021).
The Current Economic Conditions fell to a reading of 58.8 in November, down from its reading of 65.6 in October. This is a month-over-month decline of 10.4% and down 20.1% year-over-year (73.6 in November 2021).
Finally, the Index of Consumer Expectations declined to a reading of 55.6 in November, down from its reading of 56.2 in October. This is a month-over-month decrease of 1.1% and down 12.4% year-over-year (63.5 in November 2021).
In remarks and analysis prepared to accompany the release of the final November CSI, Dr. Joanne Hsu, Director of Surveys for the University of Michigan, said:
“Consumer sentiment fell 5% below October, offsetting about one-third of the gains posted since the historic low in June. Along with the ongoing impact of inflation, consumer attitudes have also been weighed down by rising borrowing costs, declining asset values, and weakening labor market expectations. Buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 19% to its September level on the basis of high interest rates and continued high prices. Long-term business conditions declined a more modest 6%, while short-term business conditions and personal finances were essentially unchanged.
Inflation expectations were also little changed from October. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 4.9%, down slightly from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9–3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months. Uncertainty over these expectations remained at an elevated level, indicating that the general stability of these expectations may not necessarily endure.”
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