U.S. Leading Economic Index® Improves in February 2022

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (3-18-22) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. in February 2022. According to the report, the LEI for the U.S. increase by 0.3% in February to 119.6 (2016=100), following a -0.5% decrease in January and a 0.8% increase in December.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.4% in February to 108.0 (2016=100), following a 0.3% increase in January and a -0.1% decrease in December.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. remained unchanged in January at 110.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7% increase in January and a 0.6% increase in December.

In remarks prepared for the release of the January LEI, Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, said:

“The US LEI rose slightly in February, partially reversing January’s decline. However, the latest results do not reflect the full impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could lower the trajectory for the US LEI and signal slower-than anticipated economic growth in the first half of the year. The global economic impact of the war on supply chains and soaring energy, food, and metals prices—coupled with rising interest rates, existing labor shortages, and high inflation—all pose headwinds to US economic growth. While the Omicron wave and its economic impact waned in recent months, the potential for new COVID-19 variants remains. Amid these risks, The Conference Board revised its growth projection for the US economy down to 3.0 percent year-over-year GDP growth in 2022—still well above the pre-pandemic growth rate, which averaged around 2 percent.”