The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index® Declines Again in November

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released on Thursday (12-21-23) its US Leading Indicators for November.

• The Leading Economic Index® (LEI) declined 0.5% in November to a reading of 103.0 (2016=100), following a downwardly revised decline of 0.1% in October. The LEI has contracted 3.5% over the six-month period from May to November, a smaller decrease than the 4.3% contraction over the previous six-month period (November 2022 to May 2023).
• The Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) rose 0.2% in November to a reading of 111.2 (2016=100), after being unchanged in October. The CEI is now up 1.0% over the six-period between May and November, compared to 0.7% growth over the previous six-month period (November 2022 to May 2023). The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. In November, all four components advanced, with personal income less transfer payments being the strongest contributor, followed by much smaller positive contributions from the remaining three components.
• The Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) improved 0.5% in November to a reading of 119.2 (2016=100), following a 0.3% increase in October. The LAG has increased 0.8% over the six-month period from May to November, an improvement compared to 0.5% growth over the previous six-month period (November 2022 to May 2023).

Adding additional background and analysis to the report, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, said:

“The US LEI continued declining in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index in the month. Housing and labor market indicators weakened in November, reflecting warning areas for the economy. The Leading Credit Index™ and manufacturing new orders were essentially unchanged, pointing to a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term. Despite the economy’s ongoing resilience—as revealed by the US CEI—and December’s improvement in consumer confidence, the US LEI suggests a downshift in economic activity ahead. As a result, The Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024.”