The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index® Creeps Higher in February

On Thursday, the Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its US Leading Indicators for February.

• The Leading Economic Index® (LEI) increased 0.1% to a reading of 102.8 (2016=100) in February, following a decline of 0.4% in January. The LEI contracted 2.6% over the six-month period from August 2023 to February 2024—a smaller decrease than the 3.8% contraction over the previous six-month period.
• The Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) rose 0.2% to a reading of 112.3 (2016=100) in February, following a 0.1% increase in January. The CEI was up 1.1% over the six-month period ending in February, an acceleration from the 0.8% gain during the previous six-month period. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. In February, all four components advanced, with personal income less transfer payments and payroll employment having the strongest contributions to the CEI.
• The Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.3% to a reading of 118.8 (2016=100) in February, following a 0.3% increase in January. The LAG increased 0.8% over the six-month period from August 2023 to February 2024 after recording no growth in the previous 6 months.

In remarks accompanying the report, Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, said:

“The US LEI rose in February for the first time since February 2022. Strength in weekly hours worked in manufacturing, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index™, and residential construction drove the LEI’s first monthly increase in two years. However, consumers’ expectations and the ISM® Index of New Orders have yet to recover, and the six- and twelve-month growth rates of the LEI remain negative.

Despite February’s increase, the Index still suggests some headwinds to growth going forward. The Conference Board expects annualized US GDP growth to slow over the Q2 to Q3 period, as rising consumer debt and elevated interest rates weigh on consumer spending.”