The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index Climbs Higher in July

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released Tuesday (7-25-23) its Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) for July. The CCI increased to a reading of 117.0 in July (1985=100), up from a reading of 110.1 in June.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to a reading of 160.0 in July (1985=100), up from June’s reading of 155.3.

The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to a reading of 88.3 (1985=100) in July, up from June’s reading of 80.0. The Conference Board notes that The Expectations Index has climbed well above 80, the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, The Conference Board still anticipates one likely before the end of the year.

Adding additional background and her analysis to the release of the CCI, the Conference Board’s Chief Economist Dana Peterson said:

“Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations. Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those make more than $100,000.”