The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Slips in December

On Wednesday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its US Leading Indicators.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.1% to a reading of 101.6 (2016=100) in December, after an upwardly revised increase of 0.4% in November. Over the second half of 2024, the LEI declined 1.3%, slightly less than its 1.7% decline in the first half of the year.
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.4% to a reading of 114.1 (2016=100) in December, following a 0.2% increase in November. As a result, the CEI increased 0.9% in the six-month period ending in December—slightly higher than its 0.7% growth over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. They all improved in December, with the largest positive contribution coming from industrial production, which contributed negatively in three out of the past six months. This was followed by personal income less transfer payments, payroll employment, and manufacturing and trade sales.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.1% to a reading of 118.5 (2016=100) in December, after an increase of 0.2% in November. However, the LAG’s six-month growth rate remained negative at 0.5% over the second half of 2024, a partial reversal from its 0.8% increase over the first half of the year.

In a statement accompanying the report, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, said:

“The Index fell slightly in December, failing to sustain November’s increase. Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline. Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December. Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead. Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.”