The Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index Declines in August

On Tuesday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released the results of its Consumer Confidence Survey for August.

• The Consumer Confidence Index declined 1.3 points in August, falling to a reading of 97.4 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 98.7 in July.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 1.6 points to a reading of 131.2.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—decreased 1.2 points to a reading of 74.8. Expectations remained below the threshold of 80—which typically signals a recession ahead—for the seventh consecutive month.

The cutoff date for preliminary results was August 20.

Among demographic groups, confidence fell for consumers under 35 years old, was stable for consumers aged 35 to 55, and rose for consumers over 55. The evolution of confidence by income groups was mixed, with no clear pattern emerging. By partisan affiliation, confidence weakened in August among both Republicans and Democrats but was little changed for Independents.

In a statement accompanying the report, Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, at The Conference Board, said:

“Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months. The present situation and the expectation components both weakened. Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month, but stronger views of current business conditions mitigated the retreat in the Present Situation Index. Meanwhile, pessimism about future job availability inched up and optimism about future income faded slightly. However, these were partly offset by stronger expectations for future business conditions.

Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to tariffs increased somewhat and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices. Meanwhile, references to high prices and inflation, including food and groceries, rose again in August. Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations picked up after three consecutive months of easing and reached 6.2% in August—up from 5.7% in July but still below the April peak of 7.0%.”