The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (5-19-22) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. in April of 2022. According to the report, the LEI declined -0.3% to a reading of 119.2 (2016=100), following a 0.1% increase in March and a 0.6% increase in February. The LEI is now up 0.9% over the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.4% in April to a reading of 108.8 (2016=100), following a 0.3% increase in March and a 0.4% increase in February. The CEI has increased by 1.6% in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.4% in April to a reading of 111.6 (2016=100), following a 0.7% increase in March and a 0.2% increase in February. The LAG has increased by 2.6% in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.
In remarks prepared for the release of the January LEI, Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, said:
“The US LEI declined in April largely due to weak consumer expectations and a drop in residential building permits. Overall, the US LEI was essentially flat in recent months which is in line with a moderate growth outlook in the near-term. A range of downside risks—including inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and pandemic-related shutdowns, particularly in China—continue to weigh on the outlook. Nevertheless, we project the US economy should resume expanding in Q2 following Q1’s contraction in real GDP. Despite downgrades to previous forecasts, The Conference Board still projects 2.3 percent year-over-year US GDP growth in 2022.”
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