Personal Income Declines While Outlay Increased in September 2021

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Friday (10-29-21) that personal income (PI) decreased -$216.2 billion, or -1.0%, in September, according to their estimates. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased -$236.9 billion, or -1.3%, in September.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $93.4 billion, or 0.6%, in September. Real DPI decreased -1.6% in September, while Real PCE increased 0.3%; goods increased 0.1%, and services increased 0.4%.

The PCE price index increased 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2%. The BEA indicates that the estimate for September personal income and outlays reflected the continued economic impacts related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In September, several pandemic-related assistance programs ended, including expanded unemployment benefits. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

Personal outlays increased $92.1 billion in September. Personal saving was $1.34 trillion in September and the personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 7.5%.

Year-over-year the PCE price index increased 4.4%, reflecting increases in both goods and services. Year-over-year energy prices have increased 24.9% and food prices have increased 4.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index for August increased 3.6% from one year ago.