National Association of Realtors Predicts Increased Existing-Home Sales and Improved Conditions for Homebuyers in 2024

National Association of Realtors® (NAR) Chief Economist Lawrence Yun on Thursday (12-14-23) presented several predictions for 2024 at NAR’s fifth-annual Real Estate Forecast Summit: The Year Ahead.

Yun is forecasting that 4.71 million homes will be sold in 2024, with the housing market expected to grow. Yun says that Austin, Texas, will be the top real estate market to watch in 2024.

Yun foresees 1.48 million housing starts in 2024, including 1.04 million single-family and 440,000 multifamily.

Home sales will begin to rise next year—up 13.5% compared to 2023—and the median home price will reach $389,500—up 0.9% year-over-year, Yun predicted. “Metro markets in southern states will likely outperform others due to faster job increases, while markets in the Midwest will experience gains from being in the most affordable region.”

Yun expects that rent prices will calm further in 2024, which in turn will hold down the consumer price index. He predicts foreclosure rates will hold at historically low levels next year, comprising of less than 1% of all mortgages.

In addition, Yun forecasts that US GDP will grow by 1.5%, avoiding a recession, with net new job additions slowing to 1.7 million in 2024 (compared to 2.7 million in 2023 and 4.8 million in 2022). After eclipsing 8% in late 2023, he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.3% and that the Fed will cut rates four times—calming inflationary conditions—in response to slower economic activity.