MBA Updates Baseline Forecast for Commercial and Multifamily Borrowing

In an updated baseline forecast released on Friday, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said it expects total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending to finish the year at $539 billion, a 26% increase from $429 billion in 2023.

MBA notes that multifamily lending alone (which is included in the total figures) is expected to rise to $297 billion this year—a 21% increase from last year’s estimate of $246 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending next year will increase to $665 billion in total commercial real estate lending, with $390 billion of that total in multifamily lending.

In remarks accompanying the forecast, MBA Head of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell said:

“The recent moderation in interest rates, coupled with the large volume of loans maturing in coming quarters, should prompt an uptick in mortgage borrowing from the low levels we’ve seen over the last two years. The exact timing of the bounce-back will depend on how quickly property owners jump on long-term interest rates that are down significantly from where they were a year ago.

Commercial mortgage originations have historically followed property prices, and the uncertainty about the future path of interest rates has been a contributing factor to the current slowdown—with many investors holding off selling or refinancing a property in the hope of lower rates. With longer term rates now lower, many of those players are likely to take action. Investors looking to shorter-term financing can also take solace in signs from the Federal Reserve that they will soon begin bringing down the short end of the curve.”