Fannie Mae Releases Home Price Expectations Survey for Q1: Price Growth Anticipated

On Thursday, Fannie Mae released its Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) for Q1. The HPSE is produced by Fannie Mae in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC., and polls over 100 housing experts across the industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years, as measured by the Fannie Mae Home Price Index.

According to the Q1 Fannie Mae HPES, experts expect annual national home price growth to be 3.8% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025.

The panel notes that their latest estimates of national home price growth are higher than last quarter’s expectations of 2.4% for 2024 and 2.7% for 2025. Additionally, an increased share of panelists indicated higher upside risk to their home price forecasts—41% in Q1 compared to 26% in 2023Q4—with a majority citing ongoing housing supply constraints and lower mortgage rates as the basis for that belief. The panel also projects a median 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6% by the end of 2024.

Commenting on the report, Fannie Mae Vice President of Economics Hamilton Fout said:

“On average, our panelists continue to expect home price growth to decelerate this year, but their overall outlook was revised upward this quarter, with most now reporting greater upside risk to home prices than downside risk. If mortgage rates move toward the panel-predicted 6% median rate by the end of 2024, we would expect this to be supportive of continued home price growth, particularly given the persistent supply-side challenges facing the housing market.”