According to the updated baseline forecast released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on Wednesday (7-19-22), total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to decline to $733 billion this year, down 18% from 2021 totals of $891 billion.
Multifamily lending alone (which is included in the total figures) is expected to fall to $436 billion in 2022. This is a 10% decline from last year’s record of $ 487 billion. The MBA does anticipate, however, that borrowing and lending will rebound in 2023 to $872 billion in total commercial real estate lending and $454 billion in multifamily lending.
Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research, offered his analysis of the recently released data:
“The rapid changes taking place across space, equity, and debt markets are having a significant effect on commercial and multifamily real estate transaction volumes.” … “The direction of the economy, which remains uncertain, will be a major driver of the magnitude and timing of market changes. Should the economy enter a recession, which—if it were to happen—would most likely come in the first half of 2023, commercial and multifamily borrowing and lending would likely be further constrained.”
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