Canadian Real Estate Association Forecasts Rebound in Existing-Home Sales in 2025

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) recently released its updated existing-home sales forecast for 2025, but it was little changed from the fall 2024 outlook.

CREA continues to believe that the combination of two and a half years of pent-up demand and lower borrowing costs, together with the usual burst of spring listings, will lead to a rebound in market activity across the country in 2025. There was a good preview of what that might look like during Q4.

In addition to lower mortgage rates, the expectation the Bank of Canada may soon signal that interest rates are about as low as they are likely to go in this easing cycle could spur even more demand from those who have been waiting for the right time to lock in a fixed-rate mortgage.

CREA anticipates that the rebound in demand will vary across Canada. British Columbia and Ontario are expected to see significant rebounds in sales due to currently low sales levels, abundant inventories, and less scope for price increases in these already expensive regions. In contrast, Alberta and Saskatchewan are likely to experience increased demand reflected more in price gains, as sales were near record levels in 2024, inventories are at near-20-year lows, and prices remain relatively affordable. Manitoba, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces are expected to fall between these extremes, with both higher sales and prices in 2025.

Approximately 532,704 residential properties are forecasted to be sold through Canadian MLS® Systems in 2025, marking an 8.6% increase from 2024. This is an upward revision from the previous forecast of a 6.6% increase, primarily due to the unexpected strength of markets across most of Canada in the fourth quarter of last year.

The national average home price is projected to rise 4.7% annually to $722,221 in 2025, slightly up from the 4.4% gain forecasted last October. Outside of British Columbia and Ontario, these price increases—and even larger ones—are already underway.

In 2026, national home sales are expected to increase 4.5% to 556,662. The national average home price is forecasted to rise 3.3% from 2025, reaching $746,379 in 2026.