The trade restrictions announced on the Trump Administration’s “Liberation Day” mark a sea change in US trade policy. Here are a few of our initial thoughts.
Spotlights
Tariffs Would be a Drop in the Housing Affordability Bucket
The Trump Administration’s threat to slap a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico starting on April 2nd will have many unhealthy effects on all three of North America’s economies. If enacted, these tariffs would increase costs and prices and lower total employment, productivity, and real wages across all three economies. However, they will not have a material effect on home affordability in the US.
A Home Design Catalog Takes Aim at a National Housing Shortage
In an effort to speed up much-needed homebuilding, Canada aims to bring back a tool that was last used in the post-war housing crisis.
Canada’s Caribou Conservation Goals and Woodland Management
One of the world’s biggest softwood lumber producing countries is in the midst of a major conservation effort that could place some Canadian fiber off limits to harvesters. Canada is taking steps to preserve boreal caribou habitat through provincial conservation plans.
US Demographics and House Inventories Fuel Home Size Trend
When the pandemic enabled many city dwellers to work remotely in 2020, many people bought new homes in more affordable and sprawling neighborhoods. By 2021, the average size of a newly constructed single-family house in the US expanded, bucking the downtrend in place since dropping from the record-high in 2015.
Canada’s Record Wildfires had Limited Impact on Lumber Supply
The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was vast and voracious. The amount of forested acres that burned this year was by far the largest ever recorded at 45.7 million acres. That represents a total land mass that is bigger than the state of Missouri that went up in smoke this year alone.
U.S. Lumber Imports from Europe Hold Strong
US imports of lumber from Europe have risen this year so far, defying many analysts’ expectations for overseas supplies to decrease due to falling demand, weaker prices and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Frame of Reference for Revamped Lumber Futures
Futures markets involve speculation about the future, spot markets deal with the present. They often differ from each other, but when the future finally arrives and the contracts near expiration, futures must converge with spot to function as a practical hedging tool. The legacy contract has done that.
Wildfires Rage in Canada
Canada’s wildfire season roared through spring and has already burned the largest amount of land ever recorded in a year. By late-June—with several months of wildfire season left to go—the burned area exceeded the full-year record made in 1995, according to Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre Inc. (CIFFC) data. Canada’s typical wildfire season peaks in July and fizzles out by October.
FEA Improves Accuracy of European Import Data
Forest Economic Advisors has recalculated US lumber import data from Europe after discovering an industry-wide miscalculation. The difference is large—likely over 1 billion board feet (BBF) in 2022—and explains a discrepancy between end-use market activity and US consumption that had left us scratching our heads for some time now.