US Real GDP Increases at an Annual Rate of 4.4% in Q3, BEA Reports in Its “Updated” Estimate

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “updated” estimate for 2025Q3 real gross domestic product (GDP), showing that GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.4%. In Q2, real GDP increased 3.8%.

The BEA noted that due to the recent government shutdown, this updated report for Q3 replaces the third estimate originally scheduled for release on December 19, 2025.

The change in Q3 GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment, which were partly offset by a decrease in imports.

The updated estimate revised GDP up 0.1 percentage point from the initial estimate, reflecting upward revisions to exports and investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports were also revised up.

Compared to Q2, the acceleration in real GDP in Q3 reflected upturns in investment, exports, and government spending, as well as an acceleration in consumer spending. Imports decreased less in Q3 than in Q2.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment—increased 2.9% in Q3, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4% in Q3, unchanged from the prior estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8%, while the PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.9%—both unchanged from earlier estimates.

The “advance” estimate for 2025Q4 real GDP is scheduled to be released on February 20.