US Real GDP Increases at an Annual Rate of 3.4% in 2023Q4, BEA Reports in Its “Third” and Final Estimate

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “third” and final estimate for 2023Q4 real gross domestic product (GDP). According to the BEA, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in Q4, following a reported increase of 4.9% in Q3.

The “third” estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate last month. In the “second” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.2%. The update primarily reflects an upward revision to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investments that was partially offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment.

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. Those gains were partially offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Compared to Q3, the deceleration in real GDP in Q4 primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment, as well as slowdowns in federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports decelerated.