US Leading Economic Index® Declined in September, The Conference Board Reports

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released today (10-20-22) the Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US in September 2022. According to the report, the LEI for the US declined 0.4% in September to a reading of 115.9 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in August but following declines of 0.5% in July and a 0.7% decline in June. The LEI has dropped 2.8% over the six-month period from March to September 2022—a reversal from its 1.4% growth over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US increased by 0.2% in September to a reading of 108.9 (2016=100). Previously, the CEI increased 0.1% in August, 0.5% in July, and 0.1% in June. The CEI has increased by 0.9% over the six-month period from March to September 2022, slower than its growth of 1.4% over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.6% in September to a reading of 116.2 (2016=100). This follows increases of 0.7% in August, 0.4% in July, and 0.7% in June. The LAG has increased by 4.1% over the six-month period from March to September 2022, faster than the 2.7% growth it experienced during the previous six-month period.

Adding additional background and his analysis, Senior Director of Economic Research at the Conference Board Ataman Ozyildirim said:

“The US LEI fell again in September and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly like before yearend. The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread. Amid high inflation, slowing labor markets, rising interest rates, and tighter credit conditions, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.5 percent year-over-year in 2022, before slowing further in the first half of next year.”