US Consumer Confidence Index Falls in September

On Tuesday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released the results of its Consumer Confidence Survey for September.

• The Consumer Confidence Index decreased 3.6 points to 94.2 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 97.8 in August.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 7.0 points to 125.4.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined 1.3 points to 73.4. Expectations remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead, for the eighth consecutive month.

Among demographic groups, confidence rose for consumers under 35 years old but fell for those over 35. Confidence by income group was mixed; confidence remained above its April low for all but households earning $25,000–35,000 and those earning above $200,000. By partisan affiliation, confidence improved slightly among Republicans and Democrats but dropped substantially among Independents.

The cutoff date for preliminary results was September 21.

In a statement accompanying the report, Dr. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, at The Conference Board, said:

“Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025. The present situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings. Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index.

Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to prices and inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined this month but remained elevated and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices. Nonetheless, consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations inched down to 5.8% in September from 6.1% in August. This is still notably above 5.0%, the level at the end of 2024.”