US Consumer Confidence Index Falls in January

On Tuesday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released the results of its Consumer Confidence Survey for January.

• The Consumer Confidence Index fell 9.7 points in January to a reading of 84.5 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 94.2 in December 2025. The 5.1-point upward revision to December resulted in a slight increase for the month, reversing the initially reported decline. However, January’s preliminary results showed confidence resumed declining after a one-month uptick.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 9.9 points to 113.7 in January.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined 9.5 points to 65.1, remaining well below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead.

The cutoff date for preliminary results was January 16.

In a statement accompanying the report, Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said:

“Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened. All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2)—surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.

The Present Situation Index fell, as net views on current business conditions dwindled to just barely positive, at +0.1%. Perceptions of employment conditions also edged lower, with the labor market differential—the share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying jobs are ‘hard to get’—continuing to flag. All three Expectations Index components also weakened in January. Expectations for business and labor market conditions six months from now fell further into negative territory. The outlook for household incomes became less positive.”