US Consumer Confidence Rises in November, Ending a Three-Month Slide

The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released on Tuesday (11-28-23) its Consumer Confidence Survey® for November.

• The Consumer Confidence Index® rose to a reading of 102.0 (1985=100) in November, up from a downwardly revised October reading of 99.1.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined slightly to a reading of 138.2 (1985=100) in November, down from 138.6 in October.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—increased to a reading of 77.8 in (1985=100) in November, up from its downwardly revised reading of 72.7 in October. The Conference Board notes that despite this month’s improvement, the Expectations Index remained below a reading of 80 for a third consecutive month—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. While consumer fears of an impending recession abated slightly—to the lowest level seen this year—around two-thirds of consumers surveyed in November still perceive a recession to be “somewhat” or “very likely” to occur over the next 12 months. The Conference Board says this is consistent with its view of an anticipated short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024.

Adding additional background and her analysis to the report, Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said:

“Consumer confidence increased in November, following three consecutive months of decline. This improvement reflected a recovery in the Expectations Index, while the Present Situation Index was largely unchanged. November’s increase in consumer confidence was concentrated primarily among householders aged 55 and up; by contrast, confidence among householders aged 35-54 declined slightly. General improvements were seen across the spectrum of income groups surveyed in November. Nonetheless, write-in responses revealed consumers remain preoccupied with rising prices in general, followed by war/conflicts and higher interest rates.”