The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Resumes Downward Trend in June

On Monday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its US Leading Economic Indicators for June.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.3% to a reading of 98.8 in June (2016=100), after no change in May (revised from -0.1%). As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the 1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024.
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose by 0.3% to a reading of 115.1 in June (2016=100), after being unchanged in both May and April. The CEI rose by 0.8% over the first half of this year, down from 1.0% growth over the previous six months. The CEI’s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components improved in June.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was unchanged at a reading of 119.9 in June (2016=100), after increasing by 0.4% in May. The LAG’s six-month growth rate was also positive at 1.4%—reversing a 0.8% decline over the previous six months.

In remarks accompanying the report, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, said:

“The US LEI fell further in June. For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance. In addition, the LEI’s six-month growth rate weakened, while the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month. At this point, The Conference Board does not forecast a recession, although economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024. Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices.”