The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Declines in June

On Monday, The Conference Board released its US Leading Indicators for June.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.2% in June to 99.1 (2016=100), following a 0.1% increase in May. The index fell 0.3% over the first half of 2026, compared with a 1.1% contraction over the second half of 2025.
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.2% to 114.6 in June, after a 0.2% increase in May. Over the first half of 2026, the CEI increased 0.4%, compared with 0.3% growth during the previous six months. Its four components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components made positive contributions in June.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was unchanged at 120.5 in June, following a 0.1% decline in May. Over the first half of 2026, the LAG rose 1.1%, reversing a 0.1% decline during the second half of 2025.

In remarks accompanying the report, The Conference Board Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said:

“In June, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined and partially reversed gains registered in May and April. While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories. Despite the recent decline, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates, while negative, were stable. Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% year-over-year GDP growth for 2026.”