The Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index Increases in August

On Tuesday, the Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released its Consumer Confidence Survey for August.

• The Consumer Confidence Index® increased to a reading of 103.3 (1985=100) in August, up from a revised reading of 101.9 in July.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to a reading of 134.4 (1985=100) in August, up from 133.1 in July.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to a reading of 82.5 (1985=100) in August, up from a revised reading of 81.1 in July. The Conference Board notes that the Expectations Index was above 80 for the second consecutive month. A reading below the threshold of 80 usually signals a recession ahead.

The Conference Board notes that the cutoff date for the preliminary results was August 21st.

Adding background and analysis to the report, Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said:

“Overall consumer confidence rose in August but remained within the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned about the labor market. Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic. This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income.

In August, confidence declined among consumers under 35 while it increased for those 35 and older. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence remained the highest among young consumers. Despite the overall improvement in the headline Index, confidence declined for consumers earning less than $25K. On a six-month moving average basis, consumers earning over $100K remained the most confident. Confidence among consumers earning $15K to $24.9K continued to trend down and was almost as low as for those earning less than $15K.”