Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity Shows Home Improvements Spending Declining Through 2025Q1

Annual expenditures for improvements and repairs to owner-occupied homes are projected to decrease this year and into 2025Q1, but at a moderating rate, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) recently released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University (4-18-24).

The LIRA projects that annual owner spending for home renovations and maintenance will decline by over 7% in Q3 before easing to just -2.6% through 2025Q1.

The LIRA provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry. Originally developed in 2007, the LIRA was re-benchmarked in April 2016 to a broader market measure based on the biennial American Housing Survey.

Commenting on the latest LIRA report, Carlos Martín, Director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Center, said:

“Residential remodeling is expected to benefit from the rebounding housing market and stabilizing material costs as we move into next year. While home improvement and repair spending is down from pandemic-induced highs, the nation’s aging homes continue to need investment in critical replacements, home performance deficiencies, as well as modernization.”

Abbe Will, Associate Director of the Remodeling Futures Program, added:

“At $451 billion, spending on homeowner improvements and repairs over the coming year is anticipated to be slightly lower than the $463 billion spent over the last year. Yet, the remodeling downturn is poised to be fairly modest and short-lived with market expenditures steadying at near-record levels.”