Home Price Growth Slows in Q4

According to the latest Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI), a national, repeat-transaction home price index measuring the average, quarterly price change for all single-family properties in the US (excluding condos), single-family home prices increased at a non-seasonally adjusted rate of 9.2% in 2022Q4, compared to 2021Q4. This is down from a revised annual growth rate of 13.1% in 2022Q3.

On a quarterly basis, home prices increased at a seasonally adjust rate of 0.2% in Q4, slightly above the 0.1% growth reported in Q3. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, home prices declined by 1.0%.

Adding additional background and his analysis to the FNM-HPI, Fannie Mae Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist Dr. Mark Palim said:

“The rise in mortgage rates over the past year and record inflation have constrained the purchasing power of prospective homebuyers. The resulting affordability pressures are evident in the home price declines of the past two quarters, along with the downturn in homes sales. The rise in rates also exacerbates the ‘lock-in effect’ in which existing homeowners who have rates well below current market rates have a financial disincentive to give up their current mortgage and purchase a different home at a higher mortgage rate, thereby reducing the supply of homes available for sale. We believe that a key factor that will impact home prices in 2023 is how the tension between a reduced supply of homes available for sale and lower mortgage demand is resolved.”