USMCA Panel Rules on First Administrative Review Antidumping Challenge

On July 21, a United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) Article 10 Binational Panel issued a decision regarding certain aspects of the US Department of Commerce’s (DOC) final determination in the first administrative review (2017–18) of the US antidumping duty order on softwood lumber from Canada (AR1).

AR1 assigned weighted-averaging dumping margins of 1.99% for Canfor, 1.15% for Resolute, 1.40% for West Fraser, and 1.57% for “all others.”

The panel ordered the DOC to revisit two aspects of its determination while upholding the remainder of the challenged findings.

In favor of Canada, the panel instructed the DOC to review certain parts of its price analysis, finding that it may have misapplied the Cohen’s d test—a statistical tool used in the review’s “differential pricing methodology”—and improperly used simple rather than weighted averages. The panel said the DOC must ensure its approach is aligned with recent related rulings by US federal courts. The deadline for the decision on remand is October 20, 2025.

In favor of the US, the panel upheld the use of the “meaningful difference” test, the practice of “zeroing,” and the treatment of control groups and product grade reporting. It also supported the DOC’s decision not to pursue a “particular market situation” claim raised by the Committee Overseeing Action for Lumber International Trade Investigations or Negotiations (COALITION).