US Real GDP Increases at an Annual Rate of 3.8% in Q2, BEA Reports in Its “Third” Estimate

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “third” estimate for Q2 real gross domestic product (GDP), reporting that GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.8%. In Q1, real GDP decreased 0.6%.

The change in Q2 GDP primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.

The latest estimate revised GDP up 0.5 percentage point from the “second” estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending. Compared to Q1, the upturn in GDP in Q2 primarily reflected a downturn in imports and an acceleration in consumer spending, partly offset by a downturn in investment.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment—rose 2.9% in Q2, a 1.0 percentage point revision from the previous estimate.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.0% in Q2, revised up 0.2 points. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.1%, revised up 0.1 points. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.6%, also revised up 0.1 points.