US Real GDP Increases at an Annual Rate of 3.2% in 2023Q4, BEA Reports in Its “Second” Estimate

On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “second” estimate for 2023Q4 real gross domestic product (GDP). According to the report, US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.2% in Q4, following an increase of 4.9% in Q3.

The “second” estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate last month. In the “advance” estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.3%. The update primarily reflects a downward revision to private inventory investment that was partially offset by upward revision to state and local government spending and consumer spending.

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment, which were partially offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Compared to Q3, the deceleration in real GDP in Q4 primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and slowdowns in federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and consumer spending. Imports also decelerated.