US Housing Share of GDP Falls Below 16% in Q1
Housing’s Share of GDP Dips Below 16% for First Time Since 2019
A closer look at the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) “advance” estimate for Q1 GDP, with analysis from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), shows housing’s share of the economy edged down to 15.9%.
The NAHB said this marks the first time since 2019 that housing’s share has fallen below 16%, down from 16.0% in 2025Q4 and 16.5% in Q1 last year. The decline reflects a pullback in residential construction, while household spending on housing services remained relatively steady.
Residential fixed investment (RFI)—the more cyclical component covering home building and remodeling—accounted for 3.7% of GDP, down from 3.8% in the prior quarter. Housing services made up 12.2%, compared to 12.3% previously.
NAHB noted that RFI is typically more volatile, historically averaging about 5% of GDP, while housing services average between 12% and 13%. Combined, housing has generally represented 17–18% of GDP, although the share has remained below those levels in the post–Great Recession period due to underbuilding, particularly in the single-family sector.
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