US Consumer Confidence Index Declines Slightly in October

On Tuesday, The Conference Board, a non-partisan, not-for-profit think tank founded in 1916, released the results of its Consumer Confidence Survey for October.

• The Consumer Confidence Index decreased 1.0 point to a reading of 94.6 (1985=100), down from a revised 95.6 in September.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose 1.8 points to 129.3.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell 2.9 points to 71.5. Expectations have remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead, since February.

In October, confidence declined among consumers under 35 and, to a lesser extent, those over 55. Confidence improved among consumers aged 35 to 54. By income, confidence fell among households earning under $75,000 but improved among those earning more, with the largest gains among those making over $200,000. By partisan affiliation, confidence improved among Independents, declined among Democrats, and was slightly lower among Republicans.

The cutoff date for preliminary results was October 19.

In a statement accompanying the report, The Conference Board’s Senior Economist for Global Indicators, Dr. Stephanie Guichard, said:

“Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level. Changes to the individual subcomponents were also limited and largely cancelled each other out. The Present Situation Index regained some strength after September’s drop. Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024. On the other hand, all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions while optimism about future income retreated slightly.

Consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined further this month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment eased somewhat after picking up in September. The write-in comments remained mostly negative overall, but less so than in previous months. References to US politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.”