University of Michigan Reports Preliminary Results of Its Consumer Sentiment Index for November

The University of Michigan on Friday (11-10-23) released the preliminary results of its Surveys of Consumers for November.

• The Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to a reading of 60.4 in November, down from 63.8 in October. This is a month-over-month decline of 5.3% but up 6.5% year-over-year (56.7 in November 2022).
• Current Economic Conditions fell to a reading of 65.7 in November, down from 70.6 in October. This is a month-over-month decline of 6.9% but up 11.9% year-over-year (58.7 in November 2022).
• The Index of Consumer Expectations dropped to a reading of 56.9 in November, down from 59.3 in October. This is a month-over-month decline of 4.0% but up 2.5% year-over-year (55.5 in November 2022).

In remarks prepared to accompany the release of the report, Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said,

“Consumer sentiment slipped for the fourth straight month, falling 5% in November. While current and expected personal finances both improved modestly this month, the long-run economic outlook slid 12%, in part due to growing concerns about the negative effects of high interest rates. Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers as well. Overall, lower-income consumers and younger consumers exhibited the strongest declines in sentiment. In contrast, sentiment of the top tercile of stock holders improved 10%, reflecting the recent strengthening in equity markets.

Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up to 4.4%, indicating that the large increase between September’s 3.2% reading and October’s 4.2% reading was no fluke. The current reading is the highest since April 2023 and remains well above the 2.3–3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations also rose, from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month, the highest reading since 2011. Gas price expectations, both over the short and long run, rose to their highest readings this year.”