University of Michigan Releases the Preliminary Results of Its Consumer Sentiment Index for April

On Friday, the University of Michigan released the preliminary results of its Surveys of Consumers for April.

• • The Index of Consumer Sentiment declined to a reading of 50.8 in April, down from 57.0 in March. This is a month-over-month decline of 10.9% and down 34.2% year-over-year (77.2 in April 2024).
  • Current Economic Conditions declined to a reading of 56.5 in April, down from 63.8 in March. This is a month-over-month decline of 11.4% and down 28.5% year-over-year (79.0 in April 2024).
  • The Index of Consumer Expectations declined to a reading of 47.2 in April, down from 52.6 in March. This is a month-over-month decline of 10.3% and down 37.9% year-over-year (76.0 in April 2024).

In a statement accompanying the report, Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said:

“Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 11% from March. This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation. Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year. Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate this month. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009. This lack of labor market confidence lies in sharp contrast to the past several years when robust spending was supported primarily by strong labor markets and incomes. Note that interviews for this release were conducted between March 25 and April 8, closing prior to the April 9 tariff partial reversal.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.7% this month, the highest reading since 1981 and marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April, reflecting a particularly large jump among independents.”