University of Michigan Releases Preliminary Results of Its Consumer Sentiment Index for June

On Friday, the University of Michigan released the preliminary results of its Surveys of Consumers for June.

• The Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to a reading of 60.5 in June, up from 52.2 in May. This is a month-over-month increase of 15.9% but is 11.3% lower than a year ago (68.2 in June 2024).
• Current Economic Conditions increased to a reading of 63.7, up from 58.9 in May. This is an 8.1% month-over-month increase but is 3.3% lower than a year ago (65.9 in June 2024).
• The Index of Consumer Expectations increased to a reading of 48.4 in June, up from 47.9 in May. This is a month-over-month increase of 21.9% but is 16.1% lower than a year ago (69.6 in June 2024).

In remarks accompanying the report, Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said:

“Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months, climbing 16% from last month but remaining about 20% below December 2024, when sentiment had exhibited a post-election bump. These trends were unanimous across the distributions of age, income, wealth, political party, and geographic region. Moreover, all five index components rose, with a particularly steep increase for short and long-run expected business conditions, consistent with a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs. Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed. However, consumers still perceive wide-ranging downside risks to the economy. Their views of business conditions, personal finances, buying conditions for big ticket items, labor markets, and stock markets all remain well below six months ago in December 2024. Despite this month’s notable improvement, consumers remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy.

Year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month. Long-run inflation expectations fell for the second straight month, stepping down from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June. Both readings are the lowest in three months. Consumers’ fears about the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation have softened somewhat in June. Still, inflation expectations remain above readings seen throughout the second half of 2024, reflecting widespread beliefs that trade policy may still contribute to an increase in inflation in the year ahead.”