University of Michigan Releases Preliminary Results of Its Consumer Sentiment Index for July

On Friday, the University of Michigan released the preliminary results of its Surveys of Consumers for July.

• The Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to a reading of 61.8 in July, up from 60.7 in June. This is a month-over-month increase of 1.8% but 6.9% lower than a year ago (66.4 in July 2024).
• Current Economic Conditions increased to a reading of 66.8 in July, up from 64.8 in June. This is a 3.1% month-over-month increase and 6.5% above a year ago (62.7 in July 2024).
• The Index of Consumer Expectations increased to a reading of 58.6 in July, up from 58.1 in June. This is a month-over-month increase of 0.9% but 14.8% lower than a year ago (68.8 in July 2024).

In remarks prepared to accompany the report, Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said:

“Consumer sentiment was little changed from June, inching up about one index point to 61.8. While sentiment reached its highest value in five months, it remains a substantial 16% below December 2024 and is well below its historical average. Short-run business conditions improved about 8%, whereas expected personal finances fell back about 4%. Consumers are unlikely to regain their confidence in the economy unless they feel assured that inflation is unlikely to worsen, for example if trade policy stabilizes for the foreseeable future. At this time, the interviews reveal little evidence that other policy developments, including the recent passage of the tax and spending bill, moved the needle much on consumer sentiment.

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell for a second straight month, plunging from 5.0% last month to 4.4% this month. Long-run inflation expectations receded for the third consecutive month, falling back from 4.0% in June to 3.6% in July. Both readings are the lowest since February 2025 but remain above December 2024, indicating that consumers still perceive substantial risk that inflation will increase in the future.”