The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Slips in August

On Friday, The Conference Board released its US Leading Indicators for August.

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.1% in August to 99.5 (2016=100), following a 0.2% increase in July. The index fell 0.1% between February and August, compared with a 0.6% decline over the prior six-month period.

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose 0.1% to 114.9 in August, following 0.2% increases in both June and July. Over the latest six-month period, the CEI increased 0.4%, compared with 0.3% in the previous six months. Its four components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All four components contributed positively in August.

The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.2% to 120.6 in August, following a 0.2% increase in July. Over the past six months, the LAG rose 0.9%, compared with 0.3% growth over the previous period.

In remarks accompanying the report, The Conference Board Senior Manager of Business Cycle Indicators Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said:

“The US LEI receded slightly in August, the first monthly decline since March of this year. Four out of ten components fell compared to the previous month, with consumer expectations remaining a significant strain on the Index. Building permits also declined on a monthly basis, with decreases in both single- and multi-unit categories and across nearly all regions. The West was the only exception, recording a small increase in total permits. Due to the latest decline, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned back to slightly negative, suggesting a less certain economic environment ahead. The economy is still expanding, but growth is expected to slow. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP to increase at a 1.9% rate in 2026, with our outlook for 2027 downwardly revised from 1.9% to 1.8%.”