The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Increases Slightly in April

On Friday, The Conference Board released its US Leading Indicators for April.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.1% in April to 97.4 (2016=100), following a 0.6% decline in March. The index fell 0.7% between October 2025 and April, compared with a 1.0% decline over the previous six-month period.
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.3% to 115.6 in April, after holding steady in March. Over the latest six-month period, the CEI rose 0.8%, compared to a 0.1% decline in the previous six months. Its four components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. In April, all four components were positive, led by industrial production.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) rose 0.4% to 120.8 in April. Over the past six months, the LAG rose 0.8%, up from a 0.5% increase over the previous period.

In remarks accompanying the report, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, said:

“The US LEI increased slightly in April, driven mainly by a rebound in stock prices and an increase in building permits, only for two and more units. The leading index rose in two of the past three months, but the gains did not offset the steep fall registered in March. As a result, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were negative, signaling fragile economic conditions ahead. Strong investment in AI infrastructure, data centers, and energy production likely will have a positive impact on growth and sustain business spending but may only partially offset weakness on the consumer side. Higher gasoline and energy costs—paired with weak hiring—will likely erode household purchasing power in the months ahead, particularly for lower- and middle-income consumers. The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.7% year-over-year GDP growth in 2026, revised up slightly from last update of 1.6%.”