The Conference Board US Leading Economic Index Declines in March

On Thursday, The Conference Board released its US Leading Indicators for March.

• The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.6% in March to 97.3 (2016=100), following a 0.3% increase in February. The index fell 1.0% in the last six months (September 2025 through March), compared with a 2.1% decline over the prior six-month period.
• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) held steady at 115.2 in March, after also remaining unchanged in February. Over the latest six-month period, the CEI rose 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in the previous six months. Its four components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. In March, employment, personal income, and manufacturing and trade sales contributed positively, while industrial production declined.
• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) rose 0.3% to 120.4 in March. Over the past six months, the LAG increased 0.7%.

In remarks accompanying the report, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, said:

“After rising in February, the US LEI pulled back sharply in March, as building permits declined and consumer expectations and stock prices weakened. The LEI continues to signal a slowdown in the economy over the coming months, as higher oil prices and supply chain tensions will likely place additional upward pressure on inflation and further reduce consumers’ purchasing power. The labor market, while currently stable, may soften with hiring slowing and unemployment edging higher. Growth will likely remain modest, as weaker consumer spending offsets some strength in business investment and defense-related activity. The Conference Board revised its US GDP growth forecast to well below 2%, down to 1.6% year-over-year for 2026.”