Real GDP Increases at an Annual Rate of 4.9% in Q3, BEA Reports in Its “Advance” Estimate

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released on Thursday (10-26-23) its “advance” estimate for real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023Q3. According to the report, GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.9%. This follows a reported real GDP increase of 2.1% in Q2.

The “advance” estimate is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revisions by the source agency.

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors were housing and utilities, health care, financial services and insurance, and food services and accommodations. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) as well as recreations goods and vehicles. The increase in private inventory investment reflected increases in manufacturing and retail trade.

Compared to Q2, the acceleration in the real GDP in Q3 reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending and in upturns in exports and residential fixed investment. These movements were partially offset by a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment and a deceleration in state and local government spending. Imports turned up.

The “second” estimate for Q3 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, November 29th.